Matt Fitzpatrick: A Sleeper Pick for The 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush
Every Open Championship has its chaos, and its quiet contenders.
The ones who slip under the radar, check all the right boxes statistically, and suddenly find themselves in the mix late Sunday afternoon. This year at Royal Portrush, Arccos Ambassador, Matt Fitzpatrick might just be one of them.
While he isn't lighting up highlight reels or dominating headlines, Fitzpatrick’s recent form and skill profile suggest he’s rounding into shape at just the right moment. A T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open (his best finish of the season) follows a T8 at Rocket Mortgage and T17 at the Travelers. He has moved up 27 spots in the OWGR, now sitting at 76th. More importantly, his game might be aligning with the three keys to success at Portrush, according to Edoardo Molinari in a recent Golf Digest article.
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Find the Fairway
“Distance doesn’t matter as much,” Molinari explains. “It’s more about getting the ball in play.”
That’s a checkmark for Fitzpatrick. While not one of the longest hitters, he’s historically accurate off the tee, and it’s showing again this year. His Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+0.201, ranked 58th) may not scream dominance, but it reflects a steady ability to gain shots by staying in position. On a links course like Portrush, where finding fescue or bunkers can end a round early, accuracy is everything.
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Control Your Lag Putting
Royal Portrush’s massive, undulating greens place a premium on pace and distance control, especially from 30+ feet.
Fitzpatrick’s Strokes Gained: Putting (+0.190, ranked 54th) puts him in solid company among Tour pros. More importantly, he’s proven capable of thriving on fast, rolling greens under pressure. At a venue where two putts can win majors, his putting profile fits the task.
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Be Mentally Tough
According to Molinari, the final key is the one you can’t measure directly: “Can you stay patient when conditions turn?”
With a U.S. Open title under his belt, Fitzpatrick has shown he can keep calm through the grind of a major. He embraces adversity, doesn't rush decisions, and thrives in thoughtful, tactical golf. These are exactly the qualities Royal Portrush is guaranteed to test.
So… Is He a Sleeper? Maybe. Maybe not. But the signs are there.
His Strokes Gained: Total sits at +0.543 (48th), and his scoring average of 70.84 is trending in the right direction. More importantly, he is coming off a stretch of solid finishes: T17 at the Travelers, T8 at Rocket Mortgage, and a T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open.
That kind of momentum can be everything. Confidence builds. The game feels just a little bit easier. And when a player shows up at a major after a run like that, they do not need to find form. They just need to keep doing what is already working and keep it going.
At +5500, Fitzpatrick is not the obvious pick. But for those paying attention to recent results and what Royal Portrush demands, he is a compelling one. If his skill set matches what Edoardo Molinari says it takes to win, and the momentum carries, do not be surprised if he is in the mix late Sunday.